CBC(600132) 国信证券·2024-11-01 11:48Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Chongqing Brewery (600132 SH) [1][3][6] Core Views - Chongqing Brewery's Q3 2024 performance showed a decline in sales volume and product mix pressure [1][4] - The company continues to pursue a premiumization strategy and is actively adapting its products and channels to market conditions [1][5] - The beer industry faces challenges from weak consumer demand and missing consumption scenarios like dining and nightlife [1][5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 4 202 billion down 7 11% YoY with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 431 million down 10 10% YoY [1][4] - Q3 2024 sales volume was 873 2 thousand kiloliters down 5 6% YoY with average beer price down 2 4% YoY [1][4] - High end mainstream and economy product revenues changed by -9 3% -7 6% and +20 0% YoY respectively in Q3 2024 [1][4] Profitability and Costs - Q3 2024 gross margin decreased by 1 4 percentage points YoY due to product mix pressure and increased depreciation from new factory operations [1][5] - Sales expense ratio decreased by 0 9 percentage points YoY in Q3 2024 with sales expenses narrowing compared to Q2 2024 [1][5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its product matrix to cater to cost effective consumption trends and strengthening non on premise channels and canned products [1][5] - Brand building efforts continue with increasing recognition of brands like Carlsberg and Feng Hua Xue Yue [1][5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2024 2026 were revised down to RMB 148 3 150 8 154 4 billion from previous estimates of RMB 153 6 161 2 169 5 billion [1][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 2026 is projected at RMB 13 3 13 6 14 1 billion with EPS of RMB 2 74 2 82 2 92 [1][6] - The current stock price implies PE multiples of 21x 21x and 20x for 2024 2026 respectively [1][6]