百润股份：第三季度收入同比下滑6%，需求延续承压

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][10] Core Views - The company reported a 6% year-on-year decline in revenue for the third quarter, indicating continued pressure on demand [1] - The pre-mixed liquor business experienced a revenue decline of 6.6% year-on-year, although the rate of decline narrowed compared to the previous quarter [1][4] - The company is enhancing its product matrix in the pre-mixed liquor segment and is optimistic about the growth potential of its liquor business, which is expected to contribute to revenue starting in 2025 [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 2.386 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [1][4] - In the third quarter alone, total revenue was 758 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year, with a net profit of 172 million yuan, reflecting a 24.01% decline [1][4] - The gross profit margin improved by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material prices and changes in product structure [5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026, now expecting revenues of 3.192 billion, 3.578 billion, and 3.937 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2.2%, +12.1%, and +10.0% [7][9] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 773 million, 864 million, and 963 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -4.5%, +11.7%, and +11.4% [7][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.74, 0.82, and 0.92 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7][9]