洋河股份：第三季度加速调整，收入及净利润降幅环比扩大

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, which has been downgraded [3][6]. Core Views - In Q3 2024, the company experienced a significant decline in revenue and net profit, with revenue down 45% year-on-year and net profit down 73% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue was 27.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.1% year-on-year, and net profit was 8.58 billion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company is actively releasing channel risks, leading to a larger decline in revenue and net profit compared to Q2 2024. The white liquor industry is facing weakened demand, and competition in the domestic market is intensifying [4][5]. - The company has increased promotional efforts, including discounts and gifts, to stabilize its market share in the domestic market, although the actual sales performance may be better than the apparent figures [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company reported total revenue of 4.64 billion yuan, down 44.8% year-on-year, and net profit of 631 million yuan, down 73% year-on-year. The gross profit margin decreased by 8.63 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to product structure pressure and increased promotional efforts [4][5]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 1.415 billion yuan, a decrease of 65.3% year-on-year, with sales cash receipts down 33.5% year-on-year [5][6]. Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to take time to clear channel risks, with revised revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 at 30.006 billion yuan, 28.412 billion yuan, and 29.802 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of -9.4%, -5.3%, and +4.9% respectively [6][7]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 8.522 billion yuan, 7.970 billion yuan, and 8.515 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -14.9%, -6.5%, and +5.9% respectively [6][7]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 15.0 for 2024 and 16.0 for 2025, with a projected dividend payout of no less than 7 billion yuan this year, resulting in a dividend yield of 6% [6][8].