今世缘：第三季度收入增速环比下降，放缓节奏蓄势春节

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue growth rate has slowed down in the third quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1% and a net profit increase of 6.6%. The total revenue for Q3 2024 reached 9.94 billion yuan, up 18.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.09 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year [4][5]. - The company is expected to focus on inventory reduction in the fourth quarter to prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival sales, leading to a downward adjustment in revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 26.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit of 6.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [4][5]. - The revenue from premium products (A+ and A categories) was 18.1 billion yuan and 6.5 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.7% and 9.6% [5][6]. Regional Performance - Revenue from the domestic market in Q3 2024 was 24.23 billion yuan, up 9.32% year-on-year, with the Suzhong and Huai'an regions showing faster growth rates of 12.89% and 10.10% respectively [5][6]. Profitability and Margins - The overall gross margin in Q3 2024 decreased by 5.14 percentage points to 75.6%, primarily due to increased promotional discounts during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [6][7]. - The net profit margin slightly declined by 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [6]. Cash Flow and Inventory - The net operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 983 million yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year, indicating pressure on cash flow and prepayments [6][7]. - The company is experiencing high inventory levels, which may affect its sales strategies in the near term [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 11.635 billion yuan, 13.058 billion yuan, and 14.622 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.2%, 12.2%, and 12.0% respectively [7][8]. - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.551 billion yuan, 3.990 billion yuan, and 4.544 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 12.4%, and 3.9% respectively [7][8].