中国国航：三季度净利同比下滑，中长期盈利弹性可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Views - The company experienced a year-on-year decline in net profit for Q3 2024, but long-term profitability is expected to improve due to operational efficiency and a decrease in oil prices [1][5]. - The recovery in domestic demand has led to a significant increase in passenger load factor, although revenue levels remain under pressure due to excess supply in the industry [1][6]. - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downward, reflecting a challenging macroeconomic environment and slow recovery in international routes [20][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 128.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.362 billion yuan, up 72.1% [1][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 48.63 billion yuan, a 6.0% increase year-on-year, but net profit decreased by 2.3% to 4.14 billion yuan [1][5]. - Passenger transport volume, revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), and available seat kilometers (ASK) grew by 14.4%, 20.7%, and 12.5% year-on-year, respectively [1][6]. Cost and Efficiency Summary - The company's operating costs for Q3 2024 were 42.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, while unit ASK operating costs decreased by 1.5% to 0.44 yuan [1][6]. - The average price of aviation kerosene decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, contributing to lower unit costs [1][6]. Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit for 2024-2026 is adjusted to 550 million yuan, 5.26 billion yuan, and 8.39 billion yuan, respectively, with significant downward adjustments of -94%, -61%, and -47% [20][21]. - The company is expected to see a gradual recovery in profitability as the aviation market stabilizes and demand increases [18][20]. Valuation Comparison - The company’s PE ratio for 2026 is projected to be in the range of 10 to 15 times, comparable to peers in the industry [18][19].