RYC(003010) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 11:52Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 22.35 RMB, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 28x [1][2] Core Views - The company's self-developed high-end home care brand "Zhanjia" is entering a volume expansion phase, driving strong revenue and profit growth [1] - The company's revenue and net profit grew 39% and 71% YoY respectively in 2024 Q1-3, with Q3 growth accelerating to 55% and 68% [1] - The clothing care market in China has significant room for growth, with per capita spending only 1/3 to 1/6 of overseas markets [1][25] - Zhanjia brand's GMV exceeded 300 million RMB in 2023 and is expected to maintain high growth in 2024 [1][32] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow 33%, 26%, and 20% YoY in 2024-2026 to 1.82, 2.29, and 2.75 billion RMB respectively [7][11] - Net profit is projected to increase 65%, 50%, and 37% YoY in 2024-2026 to 89, 134, and 183 million RMB [7][11] - Gross margin is forecast to rise from 45.7% in 2024 to 51.3% in 2026, driven by higher contribution from the higher-margin Zhanjia brand [11][12] Business Segments - The company started as an e-commerce operator and has expanded into brand management and self-owned brands [1][19] - Zhanjia brand revenue grew 67% YoY in 2024 H1 to 180 million RMB, accounting for 22% of total revenue [1][21] - Zhanjia brand's gross margin reached 69% in 2024 H1, significantly higher than the 35% for e-commerce operations [21][22] Industry Trends - Clothing care products are evolving towards finer segmentation and fragrance integration, with fragrance experience products gaining popularity [1][25][29] - Content e-commerce platforms like Douyin are accelerating product innovation and helping brands with strong operational capabilities to break through [25][31] - The Z generation and middle-class consumers are driving demand for personalized and experiential products [29][31] Zhanjia Brand Strategy - Zhanjia positions itself as a premium home care brand with plant-based and fragrance concepts [1][32] - The brand has achieved rapid growth across multiple channels, with GMV exceeding 300 million RMB in 2023 [32][35] - Zhanjia's new Four Seasons Fragrance Laundry Detergent has driven strong growth on Douyin, with GMV doubling YoY in October 2024 [38][39]