YILI(600887) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 12:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant improvement in profitability for Q3 2024, with a net profit of 10.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, while total revenue for the first three quarters was 88.733 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year [1][2] - The liquid milk segment saw a narrowing decline in revenue, while the milk powder segment experienced stable growth, attributed to a recovery in birth rates and improved market conditions following the exit of smaller brands [2] - The gross profit margin improved by 2.48 percentage points year-on-year due to lower raw milk prices and reduced discounting [2] - The net profit margin increased by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [3] - The company anticipates accelerated growth in Q4 2024, driven by favorable channel inventory levels and seasonal demand [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 29.037 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.337 billion yuan, an increase of 8.5% year-on-year [1][2] - The company adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 to 119.2 billion yuan, 126 billion yuan, and 130.7 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profit forecasts of 12.1 billion yuan, 11.4 billion yuan, and 11.9 billion yuan [4] Cost and Expense Management - The company reported a gross sales margin improvement of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, exceeding expectations, due to cost reductions and rational expense management [2][3] - Capital expenditures decreased to 1.03 billion yuan in Q3 2024, down 6.8 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to a 50% increase in operating cash flow [3] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable inventory situation and increased demand during the early Spring Festival, leading to potential growth acceleration in Q4 2024 [3]