BAIRUN CORPORATION(SZ:002568) Shanghai Securities·2024-11-01 12:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][7][13] Core Views - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, but the whisky segment is expected to drive future growth. The company has been enhancing its product matrix and marketing strategies to adapt to market changes [5][6][7] - The company reported a revenue of 2.386 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.88%, with a net profit of 574 million yuan, down 13.67% year-on-year [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 758 million yuan, a decline of 5.95% year-on-year, and a net profit of 172 million yuan, down 24.01% year-on-year [4][5] - The gross margin increased by 3.25 percentage points to 70.11%, attributed to a decrease in raw material costs [6] - The company’s operating expenses increased, impacting the net profit margin, which decreased by 3.06 percentage points to 23.95% [6] Business Segments - The pre-mixed beverage segment generated 2.102 billion yuan in revenue for the first three quarters, a decrease of 3.13% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in Q3 with a revenue of 671 million yuan, up 6.58% year-on-year [5] - The company is expanding its whisky product line, which is expected to launch in Q4 2024, potentially becoming a new growth driver [5][6] Market Outlook - The pre-mixed beverage industry has a low penetration rate, and the company maintains a leading market share. The revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.276 billion, 3.418 billion, and 3.646 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 0.37%, 4.34%, and 6.67% [7][8] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 824 million, 878 million, and 950 million yuan, with growth rates of 1.84%, 6.52%, and 8.19% respectively [7][8]