鼎胜新材：2024年三季报点评：Q3盈利下滑明显，Q4包装箔有望扭亏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance was below expectations, with total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 at 17.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan, a decrease of 52% [2] - Q3 lithium battery foil shipments increased by nearly 20% quarter-on-quarter, but profit per ton declined due to a higher proportion of low-price orders [2] - Traditional foil experienced losses in Q3, but there is an expectation for a turnaround in Q4 [3] - The company has good cost control, but operating cash flow decreased quarter-on-quarter [3] - The profit forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised down due to declining profits from lithium battery foil and losses in traditional foil [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 6.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4%, with a net profit of 40 million yuan, down 65% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Q3 gross margin was 7.4%, down 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, and net profit margin was 0.7%, down 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2] Product Performance - Lithium battery foil shipments for Q1-3 were nearly 100,000 tons, with Q3 shipments close to 40,000 tons [2] - Traditional foil shipments in Q3 were around 80,000 tons, with a projected annual total of 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 35% [3] Cost and Cash Flow - The company maintained a cost rate of 6.6% for Q1-3, with Q3 at 6.7% [3] - Operating cash flow for Q1-3 was 290 million yuan, a decrease of 66% year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast - The revised profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 310 million yuan, 500 million yuan, and 760 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27x, 16x, and 11x [4]