Cambricon(688256) 国海证券·2024-11-01 13:00Investment Rating - Maintained "Overweight" rating [1] Core Views - The company's revenue in Q3 2024 grew significantly by 284 59% YoY, driven by market expansion and the development of core processor chips in the AI field [1] - Despite the high revenue growth, the gross margin is under temporary pressure due to market expansion and delivery timing, with a Q3 gross margin of 51 20%, down 14 92pct YoY and 14 88pct QoQ [1] - Prepayments and inventory increased by 10 84 billion yuan in Q3 2024, indicating improved delivery capabilities and a positive outlook for future performance [1][2] - The company has adjusted its strategy by suspending low-margin R&D projects, leading to a reduction in R&D expenses by 8 13% YoY to 659 million yuan [3][5] - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for computing power driven by large model development, with projected revenues of 1 4 billion yuan in 2024, 2 493 billion yuan in 2025, and 3 484 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 121 million yuan, a 284 59% YoY increase, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -194 million yuan, a 26 06% YoY improvement [1] - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 185 million yuan, up 27 09% YoY, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -724 million yuan, a 10 31% YoY improvement [1] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 55 23%, down 14 61pct YoY [1] - Prepayments increased by 304 million yuan compared to H1 2024, and inventory grew by 780 million yuan, reflecting improved supply chain conditions [1] - Accounts receivable remained stable, increasing by 85 million yuan compared to H1 2024 [1] Strategic Adjustments - The company has paused low-margin R&D projects, leading to a reduction in R&D expenses and a more focused R&D team of 727 people, down 253 YoY [3][5] - The company continues to prioritize independent innovation and efficient R&D, with ongoing projects in high-end and mid-range cloud AI chips, edge, and automotive AI chips [5] Market and Valuation - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with a 56 9% increase over the past month and a 323% increase over the past year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1] - The current market capitalization is 189 358 38 million yuan, with a stock price of 453 60 yuan [1] - The company is valued at 135x PS for 2024, 76x PS for 2025, and 54x PS for 2026, reflecting its growth potential in the AI chip market [5] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see continued revenue growth in Q4 2024 and beyond, driven by internet and other orders, as well as product deliveries [2] - The company's ability to provide cloud-edge-end integrated, software-hardware collaborative, and training-inference fused AI chip products positions it well to benefit from the growing demand for computing power [5]