湖南裕能：2024年三季报点评：新品逐步上量，一体化加速

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Hunan Yuneng (301358.SZ) [1][3] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2024, with revenue at 15.879 billion yuan, down 53.74% year-on-year, and net profit at 491 million yuan, down 68.18% year-on-year [1] - Despite the decline, the company has seen a 29.57% year-on-year increase in the sales volume of phosphate-based cathode materials, reaching 476,100 tons [1] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, with successful advancements in the CN-5 and YN-9 series, which are expected to meet customer demands effectively [1] - The integration of operations is accelerating, with new mining rights and licenses obtained, which will help stabilize raw material costs and enhance profitability [1] - Future revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 24.7 billion, 32.6 billion, and 40.9 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 930 million, 1.99 billion, and 2.84 billion yuan, indicating a recovery trend [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.098 billion yuan, down 54.28% year-on-year, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, down 66.56% year-on-year [1] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are -40.3%, +32.1%, and +25.5% respectively [2] Product Development - The company has successfully launched new products, with the CN-5 series focusing on energy storage and the YN-9 series targeting high energy density applications [1] - The company is the only manufacturer meeting the requirements for a major battery manufacturer’s upcoming production [1] Operational Integration - The company has acquired mining rights in Guizhou province, which will enhance its operational integration and reduce cost volatility [1] - The production scale of the newly acquired mining site is expected to reach 2.5 million tons per year [1] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a stabilization in lithium carbonate prices and an improvement in industry supply-demand dynamics, which could lead to better profitability for the company [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 38, 18, and 12 for 2024-2026, reflecting the expected scale effects and product volume growth [1][2]