GUANGHUI ENERGY(600256) Guohai Securities·2024-11-01 13:16Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][9] Core Views - The company's long-term development prospects are broad, with significant growth potential in coal production and sales, which doubled quarter-on-quarter [2][3] - The company reported a revenue of 26.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 46.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.002 billion yuan, down 58.72% year-on-year [3][6] - The coal business saw a substantial increase in production and sales, with raw coal production reaching 21.65 million tons, up 32.8% year-on-year, and sales of 25.50 million tons, up 36.07% year-on-year [3][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37%, and a net profit of 547 million yuan, down 24.9% year-on-year [3] - The basic earnings per share (EPS) for the first three quarters was 0.31 yuan, down 58.7% year-on-year [3][6] Coal Business - The company experienced a significant increase in raw coal production and sales in Q3 2024, with production reaching 11.89 million tons (up 207% quarter-on-quarter, up 169% year-on-year) and sales of 12.12 million tons (up 117% quarter-on-quarter, up 146% year-on-year) [3][6] - Future capacity increases are expected from the Baishihu and Malang coal mines, with production capacity projected to reach 35 million tons/year and 10 million tons/year, respectively [3][6] Natural Gas Business - The total sales volume of natural gas saw a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, with the third quarter's average price for Northeast Asia LNG at $13.01 per million British thermal units, a year-on-year increase of 3.50% [3][4] - The company’s self-produced gas volume was 11.867 billion cubic meters, down 34% quarter-on-quarter and down 13% year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 43.66 billion yuan, 59.86 billion yuan, and 75.21 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 3.41 billion yuan, 4.59 billion yuan, and 6.00 billion yuan [6][7] - The estimated EPS for the same period is 0.52 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.91 yuan, with a current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15, 11, and 8 times, respectively [6][7]