富安娜：业绩短期承压，期待终端零售改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 11.25 CNY, based on adjusted earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 of 0.61, 0.66, and 0.71 CNY respectively [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.89 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.96%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 293 million CNY, down 15.3% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue and net profit fell by 11.2% and 40.8% respectively, which was below market expectations [1]. - Revenue performance varied by channel, with online, direct, and franchise channels showing year-on-year changes of -0.6%, -0.9%, and +1.9% respectively for H1 2024. The report suggests that Q3 continued the downward trend observed in Q2, particularly affecting the direct channel due to weak consumer sentiment [1]. - The company's inventory turnover days increased to 253 days, up 14 days year-on-year, attributed to slowing revenue growth and strategic inventory accumulation in anticipation of future market conditions [1]. - The sales expense ratio significantly increased by 6.5 percentage points to 32.1% in Q3, driven by intensified online competition and early recognition of franchise channel expenses. However, a reduction in franchise channel expense pressure is expected in Q4 [1]. - The report highlights potential benefits for the company from new consumer subsidy policies in Shanghai, particularly in the home textile category, which could improve retail performance and profitability in the future [1]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 3.08 billion CNY, with a projected revenue of 3.03 billion CNY for 2023 and a slight increase to 3.048 billion CNY expected in 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to decrease from 572 million CNY in 2023 to 512 million CNY in 2024 [4][9]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 55.6% in 2023 to 55.9% in 2024, while the net profit margin is projected to decrease slightly from 18.9% in 2023 to 16.8% in 2024 [4][9].