古井贡酒：收入端强韧性，基本面稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company, indicating expected relative performance between 10% and 20% over the next six months [3][11]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong revenue resilience with a 19.53% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 19.069 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 24.49% to 4.746 billion yuan [1]. - The gross margin improved by 0.67 percentage points to 79.71% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a slight decline in the third quarter [2]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from its strategic focus on "nationalization and mid-to-high-end" products, alongside the deepening of its "Three Connections Project" [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.069 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.746 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 4.700 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 19.53%, 24.49%, and 25.55% respectively [1]. - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 5.263 billion yuan, a 13.36% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.174 billion yuan, up 13.60% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin for the third quarter was 77.87%, down 1.55 percentage points from the previous year, while the net profit margin was 23.14%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points [2]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of 5.694 billion yuan, 6.745 billion yuan, and 7.745 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a growth rate of 24%, 18%, and 15% [3][4].