TECON(002100) 国泰君安·2024-11-01 13:52Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price adjusted to 8.68 CNY from the previous 11.29 CNY [3][5]. Core Views - The company has seen a decrease in breeding costs, with expectations for marginal improvements in the post-cycle phase. The third quarter performance met expectations, with significant profits from breeding operations [4][5]. - The company reported a total output of 2.14 million heads in the first three quarters and has revised its 2024 sales volume forecast down to 3 million heads due to intense competition in foot-and-mouth disease vaccines, leading to a reduction in gross margin predictions for some vaccine sales [5]. - The report anticipates a continued decline in breeding costs, with average costs expected to decrease further in the fourth quarter, driven by improved breeding efficiency and epidemic prevention capabilities [5]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters, the company achieved a revenue of 1.3087 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 11.01%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 566 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 212.14% [5]. - The report projects the company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 to be 0.57 CNY and 0.76 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.65 CNY and 0.78 CNY [5]. - The company is valued using a segment valuation method, with projected market values for its feed, veterinary, and breeding segments at 2.4 billion CNY, 3.4 billion CNY, and 6 billion CNY respectively, leading to a total target market value of 11.8 billion CNY [5]. Market Data - The company's stock price has fluctuated between 5.71 CNY and 8.94 CNY over the past 52 weeks, with a total market capitalization of 9.243 billion CNY [6]. - The company has a net asset value per share of 5.09 CNY, with a current price-to-book ratio of 1.3 [7].