美的集团：外销增长强劲，蓄水池持续扩容

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price reflecting a potential upside of over 20% within the next six months [3][11]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth driven by overseas sales, with a notable increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2024. The overall revenue reached 318.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.57%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 31.7 billion yuan, up 14.37% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from domestic policies promoting appliance upgrades, which may boost demand in Q4. The overseas business has shown remarkable growth, particularly in e-commerce sales [1][2]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness in both consumer and business sectors, aiming for long-term development and profitability optimization [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 101.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.05%, and a net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 14.86% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 26.0%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising copper prices and currency fluctuations [1]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 60.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.6% [1]. Financial Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 410.11 billion yuan, 443.42 billion yuan, and 475.92 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9.74%, 8.12%, and 7.33% [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 38.46 billion yuan in 2024, 42.72 billion yuan in 2025, and 46.72 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 14.07%, 11.06%, and 9.35% [2][5]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 5.02 yuan in 2024, 5.58 yuan in 2025, and 6.10 yuan in 2026 [2][5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to be 14.38x for 2024, 12.95x for 2025, and 11.84x for 2026 [2][5]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.13 in 2024 to 2.60 in 2026 [2][5]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is projected to be 8.46 for 2024, decreasing to 6.11 by 2026 [2][5].