By-health(300146) Tianfeng Securities·2024-11-01 14:00Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [5][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.734 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26.33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 869 million yuan, down 54.31% year-on-year [1] - The company is undergoing product adjustments, with the core products' iteration and upgrade process slower than planned, impacting short-term performance [2][5] - The company aims to enhance operational quality by focusing on core brands, channels, and categories amidst a changing consumer environment and intensified competition [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.120 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.76%, with a net profit of -22 million yuan, down 106.30% year-on-year [1] - The main brand "汤臣倍健" generated revenue of 3.194 billion yuan, down 29.20% year-on-year, while "健力多" and "lifespace" also saw significant declines [2] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 67.93%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to price wars in online channels and cost pressures [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 7.161 billion, 7.715 billion, and 8.472 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit estimates of 739 million, 1.100 billion, and 1.370 billion yuan [5][6] - The company is expected to experience a significant decline in net profit in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 57.70% [5] Market Position and Strategy - The company has established a strong competitive barrier in offline pharmacy channels, holding over 30% market share, while facing intense competition in online channels [3] - Future strategies include activating the distributor team, enhancing service capabilities, and optimizing expenditure models to maintain healthy growth in a competitive environment [3]