WLY(SZ:000858) Southwest Securities·2024-11-01 14:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wuliangye (000858) with a current price of 146.83 CNY and a target price not specified for the next 6 months [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 67.92 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.93 billion CNY, up 9.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 17.27 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, and a net profit of 5.87 billion CNY, up 1.3% year-on-year [1]. - External demand has shown weakness, leading to a slowdown in revenue growth. The company has maintained a stable pricing strategy and has actively managed channel inventory to ensure price stability [1]. - The gross profit margin has improved, reaching 76.2% in Q3, with a net profit margin of 35.4%. Cash flow remains robust, with cash receipts from sales increasing by 18.7% year-on-year [1]. - The company is focused on high-quality sales and brand enhancement through various marketing initiatives, which are expected to support long-term growth [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the expected revenue is 83.27 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 9.02%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 30.21 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 10.24% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 7.78 CNY, with a projected PE ratio of 19 [2]. Market Strategy - The company has implemented a marketing strategy focused on maintaining sales volume, stabilizing prices, and enhancing channel profitability. This includes early clarification of rebate policies for the fourth quarter [1]. - The company plans to increase its cash dividend payout ratio to no less than 70% and at least 20 billion CNY (before tax) from 2024 to 2026, which is expected to boost investor confidence [1]. Long-term Outlook - The strategic direction of the company remains clear, with an emphasis on brand value and market position. The company is expected to achieve sustained and stable growth as the economy recovers [1].