lu'an EED(601699) 国海证券·2024-11-01 14:13Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6]. Core Views - The third quarter saw improvements in the production and sales of blown coal, with the company's coal resource reserves further strengthened [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 26.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.28%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.798 billion yuan, down 61.51% year-on-year [3]. - The company has successfully acquired a coal exploration right, enhancing its resource reserves by approximately 22% [3]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 8.99 billion yuan, remaining flat quarter-on-quarter but down 19% year-on-year [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2024 was 570 million yuan, a decrease of 39% quarter-on-quarter and 71% year-on-year [3]. - The average ROE for the company was 5.89%, a decrease of 9.02 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Coal Business Overview - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company faced pressure on both volume and price, with a year-on-year decline in gross profit per ton [3]. - The company's raw coal production was 42.47 million tons, down 4% year-on-year, and the sales volume of commercial coal was 38.07 million tons, down 6% year-on-year [3]. - The comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 662 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12% year-on-year, while the comprehensive cost was 376 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.6% year-on-year [3]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate operating revenues of 36.825 billion yuan, 38.256 billion yuan, and 39.741 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.155 billion yuan, 4.812 billion yuan, and 5.415 billion yuan for the same years, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 48% in 2024, followed by increases of 16% and 13% in 2025 and 2026 [6]. - The estimated EPS for the next three years is 1.39 yuan, 1.61 yuan, and 1.81 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.5, 9.1, and 8.1 [6].