山西汾酒：2024年三季报点评：24Q3业绩符合预期，动销顺畅势能延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met market expectations, with revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, and a net profit of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.3% year-on-year [1] - The Qinghua series showed steady growth, driven by both domestic and international markets, despite external consumption pressures [1][3] - The company is expected to achieve stable growth in the medium to long term due to its strong brand positioning and product matrix [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, and a net profit of 2.94 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 74.3%, primarily due to faster growth in mid-range products [2] - Cash flow remained robust, with sales cash receipts of 8.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.8% [2] Market Dynamics - The company leveraged its strong brand and channel advantages to achieve double-digit revenue growth in Q3, with mid-to-high-end liquor revenue reaching 6.19 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year [1] - Domestic revenue in Q3 was 3.51 billion yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year, while international revenue was 5.09 billion yuan, up 10.9% year-on-year [1] Growth Prospects - The company is expected to see EPS of 10.21 yuan, 11.79 yuan, and 13.62 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 20x, 17x, and 15x [3][4] - The product matrix is diversified, with core products like Qinghua 20/25 showing higher growth rates than the overall market [3]