Baolong Automotive(603197) 西南证券·2024-11-01 14:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Baolong Technology (603197) [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 performance met expectations with significant quarter-over-quarter recovery in net profit [1] - Net profit margin rebounded quarter-over-quarter while expense ratio continued to decline [2] - Air suspension and sensor businesses maintained rapid growth [3] - Traditional business market share steadily increased with improving overseas operations [4] Financial Performance Q3 2024 Results - Revenue: 5.026 billion yuan (+21% YoY) [1] - Net profit: 249 million yuan (-26.6% YoY) [1] - Gross margin: 26.2% (-1.7pp YoY) [1] - Net margin: 5.3% (-2.9pp YoY) [1] Q3 2024 Highlights - Revenue: 1.843 billion yuan (+19.8% YoY, +8.3% QoQ) [1] - Net profit: 100 million yuan (-35.2% YoY, +24.9% QoQ) [1] - Gross margin: 24.6% (-3.6pp YoY, -0.5pp QoQ) [2] - Net margin: 5.8% (-3.9pp YoY, +0.6pp QoQ) [2] - Expense ratio: 17.8% (+0.1pp YoY, -1.7pp QoQ) [2] Business Segments Air Suspension - H1 2024 revenue: 420 million yuan (+44.5% YoY) [3] - Low penetration rate with growth potential [3] - Strong R&D experience and first-mover advantage in air spring products [3] Sensors - H1 2024 revenue: 310 million yuan (+51.7% YoY) [3] - Product categories include pressure, optical, position, speed, acceleration, and current sensors [3] Traditional Business - TPMS revenue: 990 million yuan (+19.7% YoY) [4] - Overseas operations: 24.43 million yuan net profit (+390% YoY) [4] - Metal pipe revenue: 750 million yuan (+8.4% YoY) [4] - Valve stem revenue: 380 million yuan (+5.1% YoY) [4] Financial Forecast 2024-2026 Projections - EPS: 1.87/2.65/3.56 yuan [4] - PE: 21/15/11x [4] - Net profit CAGR: 25.9% [4] Key Financial Metrics - Revenue growth: 21.62%/25.32%/22.59% [5] - Net profit growth: 4.76%/41.56%/34.45% [5] - ROE: 11.50%/14.43%/16.86% [5] - PB: 2.79/2.59/2.28/1.96 [5] Valuation - Current price: 38.79 yuan [1] - 52-week price range: 26.86-66.15 yuan [6] - Market cap: 8.226 billion yuan [6] - Total assets: 9.634 billion yuan [6] - Net assets per share: 14.60 yuan [6]