CONBA(600572) 华创证券·2024-11-01 14:18Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for Kangmei Pharmaceutical (600572) with a target price of 6.4 RMB, compared to the current price of 4.75 RMB [1] Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit declined in the first three quarters of 2024, primarily due to the normalization of demand and a decrease in sales of core products [1] - The traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) segment experienced a year-on-year decline due to a high base effect, while the specialty health consumer goods business performed well [1] - The company has optimized its expense structure and deepened R&D innovation, with several new TCM drugs submitted for approval or entering clinical trials [1] - The board of directors completed its transition in August 2024, aiming to accelerate internal growth and external expansion under the "One Platform, Two Leaders" strategy [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company's TCM segment revenue was 24.9 billion RMB, down 11.4% YoY, while specialty chemical drugs revenue was 18.5 billion RMB, up 9.9% YoY [1] - The company's gross margin and R&D expense ratio improved by -6.2pct and +0.7pct respectively in Q3 2024 [1] - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of 7.2 billion, 8.6 billion, and 10.2 billion RMB, with YoY growth rates of 22%, 15%, and 13% respectively [1] Strategic Developments - The company has submitted applications for new TCM drugs, including Linggui Zhugan Granules, and obtained clinical trial approvals for Qinghouyan Buccal Tablets and Hedera Helix Leaf Extract [1] - The new leadership team is focused on mixed-ownership reform to drive internal growth and external expansion [1] Industry Context - The report highlights the impact of healthcare reform and consumer downgrading on the pharmaceutical industry [1] - The company's performance is analyzed in the context of the broader TCM and health consumer goods markets [1]