ASMPT(00522) 开源证券·2024-11-01 14:41Investment Rating - The investment rating for ASMPT is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The traditional business is recovering slowly, with profit improvement expected to be driven by TCB volume growth [3][4] - The SMT business is dragging down the company's performance, with the recovery in 2024 not meeting expectations [3][4] - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 downwards due to weak SMT demand, with expected profits of 4 billion, 12 billion, and 22 billion HKD respectively [4][6] Financial Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 429 million USD, a slight increase of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, within the guidance range of 370-430 million USD [3] - New orders increased by 1.5% quarter-on-quarter, with the semiconductor segment growing by 7%, while SMT orders declined by 5% [3] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between 380-460 million USD, with a median estimate indicating a 2% decline quarter-on-quarter [3] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 show a decline in 2024 followed by growth in subsequent years, with year-on-year growth rates of -41%, 177%, and 88% respectively [4][6] Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned to benefit from advancements in TCB technology, particularly in HBM applications, which are expected to drive future growth [5] - The current stock price of 83.75 HKD corresponds to P/E ratios of 81.7, 29.5, and 15.7 for 2024-2026 [4][6] - The traditional packaging business is still at the recovery starting point, with AI advanced packaging expected to remain a long-term focus [4]