YOFC(601869) 民生证券·2024-11-01 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company [1][3] Core Views - The company's revenue and non-GAAP net profit turned positive in 24Q3, driven by improved shipments due to AI demand [1] - The company's cost control and cash flow have improved, with AI-related product shipments expected to further enhance gross margins [1] - CRU predicts a bottoming out of domestic fiber demand in 2024, with a recovery expected in 2025, driven by rebounds in the US and European markets and stabilization in China [1] - Global fiber demand is expected to rise, supported by AI infrastructure construction and overseas telecom transmission growth, as evidenced by Corning's strong performance [1] Financial Performance - In 24Q3, the company achieved revenue of RMB 3.346 billion, a YoY increase of 7.46%, and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 188 million, a YoY increase of 28.48% [1] - The company's gross margin in 24Q3 was 27.67%, up 1.95 percentage points YoY but down 1.12 percentage points QoQ [1] - The company's operating cash flow in 24Q3 was RMB 530 million, showing both YoY and QoQ growth [1] - Accounts receivable and notes receivable totaled RMB 6.036 billion at the end of 24Q3, a YoY increase of 7.3%, slower than revenue growth [1] Industry Outlook - Global fiber optic cable demand is expected to remain flat in 2024 but grow by 6.2% in 2025, reaching 568 million core kilometers [1] - The Chinese market is expected to shift from negative growth in 2024 to a 2.3% growth in 2025, driven by increased investment in cloud computing and data centers [1] - Multimode fiber demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 10%, driven by data center applications [1] - Chinese manufacturers are establishing overseas cable production facilities to mitigate anti-dumping risks and serve local markets, leading to rising fiber exports [1] Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.216 billion, RMB 1.332 billion, and RMB 1.417 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 17x, 15x, and 14x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] - Revenue is forecasted to grow by 5.14%, 9.21%, and 7.69% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - Gross margins are expected to remain stable, with slight improvements from 24.37% in 2024 to 25.53% in 2026 [4] Key Financial Metrics - The company's ROE is projected to be 10.02%, 10.17%, and 10.04% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] - The debt-to-asset ratio is expected to remain around 51% over the forecast period [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be RMB 1.60, RMB 1.76, and RMB 1.87 in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4]