AVIC SAC(600760) 华安证券·2024-11-01 15:00Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 25.298 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.95%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 1.818 billion, down 23.12% year-on-year [2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to delays in contract signings, affecting the expected demand for related products [2] - The company is actively exploring emerging fields, particularly in the "low-altitude economy" sector, leveraging its natural advantages as a large state-owned aviation equipment manufacturer [3] - The company is focusing on the development of civilian drones and the transformation of military-civilian technologies, aiming to seize opportunities in the low-altitude economy [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be RMB 3.703 billion, RMB 4.505 billion, and RMB 5.420 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 23.1%, 21.7%, and 20.3% [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are 34.53x, 28.38x, and 23.59x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4] Financial Performance and Ratios - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 46.248 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2%, and is expected to grow to RMB 53.155 billion, RMB 61.095 billion, and RMB 69.617 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was RMB 3.007 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30.5%, and is expected to reach RMB 3.703 billion, RMB 4.505 billion, and RMB 5.420 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 10.9% in 2023 to 12.2% in 2026 [6] - ROE is projected to remain stable at around 20% from 2023 to 2026 [6] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 38.70x in 2023 to 23.59x in 2026 [6] - The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 7.70x in 2023 to 4.76x in 2026 [6] - EV/EBITDA is expected to decrease from 25.57x in 2023 to 15.62x in 2026 [6] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are expected to grow from RMB 55.466 billion in 2023 to RMB 80.144 billion in 2026 [8] - Operating cash flow is projected to improve significantly, from a negative RMB 4.393 billion in 2023 to a positive RMB 6.139 billion in 2026 [8] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is expected to decrease from 70.7% in 2023 to 65.0% in 2026, indicating improving financial health [8] Growth and Profitability - Revenue growth is expected to remain strong, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 14.9%, and 13.9% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - Net profit growth is projected to be 23.1%, 21.7%, and 20.3% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] - The company's net margin is expected to increase from 6.5% in 2023 to 7.8% in 2026 [6]