Three Squirrels(300783) 国海证券·2024-11-01 15:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company reported strong revenue and profit growth in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 24% and a net profit increase of 221.9% [3][4]. - The company is shifting its distribution strategy from "wholesale distribution" to "deep distribution," focusing on daily sales products, which is expected to enhance efficiency and revenue contributions [4][6]. - The company plans to invest a total of 6.6 billion RMB in retail, manufacturing, and brand development, indicating a long-term strategic focus on offline discount operations and enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [4][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 7.169 billion RMB, a 56.5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 341 million RMB, a 101.2% increase year-on-year [3][6]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 24.46%, reflecting a slight increase compared to previous periods, attributed to improved cost control and scale effects from revenue growth [4][6]. - The company expects to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 10.306 billion RMB, 13.254 billion RMB, and 16.037 billion RMB for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 45%, 29%, and 21% [6][7]. Investment Forecast - The report forecasts a net profit of 402 million RMB for 2024, with a growth rate of 83%, and an EPS of 1.00 RMB, corresponding to a PE ratio of 25 [6][7]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong return on equity (ROE) of 15% in 2024, increasing to 21% by 2026 [7][9]. Market Performance - As of October 31, 2024, the company's stock price was 25.52 RMB, with a market capitalization of approximately 10.23 billion RMB [4][9]. - The company's performance over the past 12 months shows a 41% increase, significantly outperforming the benchmark index [4][9].