五粮液：2024年前三季度业绩点评：边际降速，节奏务实

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 67.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.9 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 17.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.4%, and net profit was 5.87 billion yuan, increasing by 1.3% year-on-year [2] - The growth rate in Q3 slowed due to a high base effect and weaker demand for high-end gifting during the Mid-Autumn Festival [2] - The company has maintained a stable sales strategy for its flagship product, with a clear reduction in distribution quotas for 2024, achieving over 90% of the annual collection target in some regions [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing terminal consumption for its 1618 and low-alcohol products, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth of over 20% and around 10% respectively for the first three quarters [2] Financial Performance - The company’s sales cash collection in Q3 2024 increased by 18.7% year-on-year, with a cash collection ratio of 163% [3] - The gross profit margin in Q3 2024 improved by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to the implementation of new pricing for flagship products [3] - The net profit margin remained stable year-on-year, with sales expense ratio increasing by 2.8 percentage points due to significant promotional activities [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company expects to maintain stable sales for its flagship product and anticipates a shift in pricing strategy that will lay a foundation for long-term price growth [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 32.9 billion, 37.1 billion, and 41.8 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9%, 13%, and 13% [4] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a P/E ratio of 18, 16, and 14 times for 2024-2026 [4]