SA(601021) 华创证券·2024-11-01 17:39Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Spring Airlines (601021) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Spring Airlines' Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 32.4%, but the overall performance of the low-cost airline leader is expected to be strong [1] - The report anticipates significant price elasticity in the airline sector once demand picks up, similar to the market trends observed in 2009-2010 [1] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of 2.48 billion, 3.21 billion, and 3.73 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.53, 3.28, and 3.81 yuan [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Spring Airlines reported revenue of 15.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%, and a net profit of 2.6 billion yuan, down 2.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was 6.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.5% year-on-year, while net profit was 1.24 billion yuan, down 32.4% year-on-year [1][5] Operational Data - For Q1-Q3 2024, Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) increased by 17.0% year-on-year, while Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) rose by 20.1% [1] - The passenger load factor for Q3 2024 was 92.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - The passenger revenue per kilometer for Q1-Q3 2024 was 0.41 yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year [1] - Operating costs for Q1-Q3 2024 were 12.93 billion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year, with fuel costs at 4.78 billion yuan, an increase of 17.4% [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a target market capitalization of 64.3 billion yuan and a target price of 65.7 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 20% from the current price [1] - The report emphasizes that despite seasonal price declines, Spring Airlines is expected to maintain strong profitability due to effective cost control and high passenger load factors [1]