SANHUA(002050) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 18:00Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - 24Q3 revenue increased by 7% YoY, net profit attributable to parent company increased by 3% YoY, and non-GAAP net profit decreased by 5% YoY, meeting market expectations [2] - Automotive parts growth remains under pressure, expected to be flat YoY in Q3 [3] - Refrigeration business saw a significant recovery in YoY growth, expected to grow by over 10% in Q3 [3] - Humanoid robot business is expected to secure supplier contracts in Q4, with industrialization accelerating [4] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 32.4/38.0/45.4 billion yuan, representing YoY growth of +11%/+17%/+19% [4] Financial Performance - 24Q1-3 revenue reached 205.6 billion yuan, up 8% YoY, with net profit attributable to parent company at 15.1 billion yuan, up 9% YoY [2] - Q3 gross margin was 28.2%, down 2.6 pct YoY but up 0.3 pct QoQ [2] - Q3 net profit margin was 11.6%, down 0.6 pct YoY and 0.5 pct QoQ [2] - Sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios in Q3 were 2.2%/7.6%/5.2%/0.7%, with YoY changes of -0.1/+1.4/-1.2/-0.6 pct [2] Business Segments - Automotive parts revenue expected to reach 110-115 billion yuan for the full year, with YoY growth of 10-15% [3] - Refrigeration business revenue expected to grow by 5-10% YoY for the full year [3] - Humanoid robot business expected to contribute to performance starting in 2025, with potential market share exceeding 50% [4] Valuation and Forecasts - 2024-2026 revenue forecasts are 272.12/310.44/361.47 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 10.81%/14.08%/16.44% [1] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to parent company forecasts are 32.38/38.04/45.43 billion yuan, with YoY growth of 10.86%/17.47%/19.44% [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecasts are 0.87/1.02/1.22 yuan per share [1] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios are 25.22x/21.47x/17.97x [1] Market Data - Current stock price: 21.88 yuan [6] - 52-week low/high: 15.66/30.74 yuan [6] - P/B ratio: 4.43x [6] - Market cap: 81,664.68 million yuan [6] Financial Ratios - ROIC: 14.12% in 2023, expected to increase to 15.40% by 2026 [11] - ROE: 16.32% in 2023, expected to remain stable around 16% through 2026 [11] - Debt-to-asset ratio: 43.36% in 2023, expected to decrease to 37.83% by 2026 [11]