BAOFENG ENERGY(SH:600989) Soochow Securities·2024-11-01 18:06Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.27 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.54 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [2] - The Q3 2024 results showed a revenue of 7.38 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.9% year-on-year but a decrease of 14.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 24.6% year-on-year and 34.6% quarter-on-quarter [2] - The Ningdong Phase III project contributed to profit growth, while maintenance activities in Q3 2024 affected product sales volumes [3] - The company is advancing new projects, including a 3 million tons per year olefin project in Inner Mongolia expected to gradually commence production by the end of 2024, and a 4 million tons per year olefin project in Xinjiang [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 has been adjusted to 6.5 billion, 12.2 billion, and 13.5 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth potential [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2022 was 28.43 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 22.02%, while 2023 revenue was 29.14 billion yuan, showing a modest growth of 2.48% [1] - The projected revenue for 2024 is 40.23 billion yuan, indicating a significant year-on-year increase of 38.08% [1] - The net profit for 2022 was 6.30 billion yuan, which decreased by 10.86% in 2023 to 5.65 billion yuan, but is expected to rise to 6.49 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a growth of 14.78% [1] Product Sales and Pricing - Sales volumes for key products in the first three quarters of 2024 were 8.3 million tons for PE, 8.2 million tons for PP, and 5.31 million tons for coke, with year-on-year increases of 54%, 70%, and 2% respectively [3] - The average prices for PE, PP, and coke in the first three quarters of 2024 were 7,082 yuan, 6,710 yuan, and 1,408 yuan per ton, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] Project Development - The Inner Mongolia coal-to-olefin project is progressing as planned, with the first boiler successfully ignited on July 1, 2024, and is expected to gradually commence production by the end of 2024 [4] - The Xinjiang coal-to-olefin project is also advancing, with environmental assessments completed and expectations for lower raw material costs due to advanced technology [4]