Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was significantly impacted by foreign exchange losses, with net profit attributable to the parent company dropping by 40% YoY to RMB 630 million [2] - The proprietary trading business showed significant improvement, with Q1-Q3 2024 income reaching RMB 7.46 billion, up 7% YoY [2] - The investment banking business continued to face pressure, with Q1-Q3 2024 income down 21% YoY to RMB 2.06 billion [2] - The asset management business saw a 12% YoY decline in Q1-Q3 2024 income to RMB 840 million [2] - The brokerage business revenue fell 27% YoY in Q1-Q3 2024 to RMB 2.56 billion, with Q3 revenue down 22% YoY to RMB 790 million [2] Financial Performance - Q1-Q3 2024 total operating income decreased by 23% YoY to RMB 13.449 billion [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company dropped by 37.97% YoY to RMB 2.858 billion [1] - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 10% YoY to RMB 4.539 billion [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 40% YoY to RMB 630 million [1] - Q1-Q3 2024 net interest expense increased by 44% YoY to RMB 1.193 billion [2] Valuation and Forecast - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 4.484 billion, RMB 5.548 billion, and RMB 5.934 billion respectively [2] - 2024-2026 EPS is projected to be RMB 0.93, RMB 1.15, and RMB 1.23 respectively [2] - Current market value corresponds to 2024-2026 PB (H) valuations of 0.68x, 0.63x, and 0.59x respectively [2] Market Data - Closing price (HKD): 14.38 [4] - 52-week low/high (HKD): 7.81/24.65 [4] - P/B ratio: 0.78x [4] - HKD market capitalization: RMB 27.375 billion [4] Fundamental Data - Net asset per share (RMB): 18.52 [5] - Asset-liability ratio: 83.35% [5] - Total shares outstanding: 4.827 billion [5] - Tradable shares: 1.904 billion [5] Business Segments - Proprietary trading: Q3 2024 income reached RMB 3.21 billion, up 26% YoY and 34% QoQ [2] - Investment banking: Q3 2024 income was RMB 780 million, up 24% YoY but down 6% QoQ [2] - Asset management: Q3 2024 income was RMB 280 million, down 5% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - Brokerage: Q3 2024 income was RMB 790 million, down 22% YoY and 16% QoQ [2]
中金公司：2024年三季报点评：汇兑损失拖累业绩，自营业务大幅回暖