Mindray(300760) 东吴证券·2024-11-01 20:00Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but a recovery is expected next year [1] - Domestic market faces temporary challenges due to low public hospital bidding and weak non-essential medical demand, while the international market performs well [2] - The core in-vitro diagnostics business shows strong growth, with a 20.9% YoY increase in revenue for the first three quarters [3] - The company's 2024-2026 net profit forecasts have been revised downward, but the "Buy" rating is maintained due to expected recovery in equipment procurement [3] Financial Performance - 2024 Q1-3 revenue: 294.85 billion yuan (+7.99% YoY), net profit: 106.37 billion yuan (+8.16% YoY) [2] - Domestic revenue for Q1-3: 174.7 billion yuan (+1.9% YoY), with a 9.7% decline in Q3 [2] - International revenue for Q1-3: 120.2 billion yuan (+18.3% YoY), with Q3 growth of 18.6% [2] - In-vitro diagnostics revenue: 114 billion yuan (+20.9% YoY), accounting for 38.7% of total revenue [3] - Life information and support business revenue: 108.9 billion yuan (-11.7% YoY), accounting for 36.9% of total revenue [3] - Medical imaging revenue: 59.7 billion yuan (+11.4% YoY), accounting for 20.2% of total revenue [3] Financial Forecasts - 2024E revenue: 377.54 billion yuan (+8.08% YoY), net profit: 129.12 billion yuan (+11.48% YoY) [1] - 2025E revenue: 450.50 billion yuan (+19.33% YoY), net profit: 153.63 billion yuan (+18.98% YoY) [1] - 2026E revenue: 530.10 billion yuan (+17.67% YoY), net profit: 180.68 billion yuan (+17.61% YoY) [1] - 2024E EPS: 10.65 yuan, P/E ratio: 25.03x [1] - 2025E EPS: 12.67 yuan, P/E ratio: 21.04x [1] - 2026E EPS: 14.90 yuan, P/E ratio: 17.89x [1] Market Data - Closing price: 266.60 yuan [5] - 52-week low/high: 221.66/351.60 yuan [5] - P/B ratio: 8.71x [5] - Market cap: 323.24 billion yuan [5] Key Financial Metrics - 2024E ROE: 33.04%, ROIC: 33.08% [10] - 2025E ROE: 28.22%, ROIC: 30.96% [10] - 2026E ROE: 24.92%, ROIC: 26.44% [10] - 2024E gross margin: 65.35%, net margin: 34.20% [9] - 2025E gross margin: 64.85%, net margin: 34.10% [9] - 2026E gross margin: 64.72%, net margin: 34.08% [9] Business Segments - In-vitro diagnostics: Strong growth in chemical发光业务, with revenue exceeding 20% growth [3] - Life information and support: Decline in revenue, but微创外科业务增长超过45% [3] - Medical imaging: Growth in high-end and ultra-high-end ultrasound models, with revenue exceeding 30% growth [3]