ICBC(601398) 国泰君安·2024-11-02 01:38Investment Rating - Maintains an "Overweight" rating for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) with a target price of 7.11 yuan, representing a 0.69x PB for 2024 [5] Core Views - ICBC's Q3 2024 performance exceeded expectations, with both revenue and net profit growth turning positive [3] - The net interest margin (NIM) showed signs of stabilization, and asset quality remained stable [3] - The bank's Q3 revenue growth was 1.1% YoY, a significant improvement from Q2's -8.7% [4] - Net interest income declined by 1.1%, but the decrease narrowed, while non-interest income surged by 50.1%, driven by investment gains [4] - Net profit growth for Q3 rebounded to 3.8%, supported by a lower effective tax rate [4] Financial Performance - Total assets grew by 8.7% YoY, with loans increasing by 9% YoY by the end of Q3 2024 [4] - New loans in Q3 amounted to 258.4 billion yuan, with retail loans increasing by 12.7 billion yuan and corporate loans decreasing by 8.9 billion yuan [4] - The NIM for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.43%, unchanged from the first half, with stabilization attributed to declining liability costs [4] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.35%, while the provision coverage ratio increased to 220.3% [4] Earnings Forecast - Adjusted net profit growth forecasts for 2024-2026 are 0.57%, 1.54%, and 1.91%, respectively, with EPS estimates of 0.99, 1.00, and 1.02 yuan [4] - The bank's ROAE is expected to decline gradually from 10.7% in 2023 to 9.0% in 2026 [10] Valuation and Peer Comparison - ICBC's 2024E P/B ratio is 0.60x, lower than peers such as China Construction Bank (0.61x) and Agricultural Bank of China (0.63x) [13] - The bank's 2024E P/E ratio is 6.24x, slightly higher than some peers like Bank of Communications (6.08x) [13] Industry Context - The banking sector is expected to benefit from recent economic stabilization policies, which may alleviate credit risks and boost loan demand [4] - However, the NIM is still under pressure due to factors such as LPR cuts and adjustments to existing mortgage rates [4]