周大生：2024Q3加盟业务发货承压，电商增速优异

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][10]. Core Views - The company experienced a significant revenue decline of 41% in Q3 2024, with a net profit decrease of 29% year-on-year. The revenue for Q3 was 2.61 billion yuan, down 40.9% compared to the previous year, attributed to fluctuations in consumer demand and high gold prices [1]. - The gross margin improved by 9.7 percentage points to 27.5%, likely due to changes in channel and product mix, with a notable increase in the proportion of brand usage fees [1]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities showed a strong recovery, with a net cash flow of 1.315 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, compared to a negative cash flow of 110 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [5]. Summary by Sections Franchise Business - Franchise revenue decreased by 19.8% to 7.66 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 revenue dropping 52% to 1.7 billion yuan. The decline was primarily due to weak consumer purchasing intent for gold jewelry amid a challenging economic environment [2]. - The number of franchise stores remained stable at 4,886, with a net increase of 365 stores year-on-year [2]. Self-operated Offline Business - Self-operated offline revenue grew by 9.77% to 1.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with a slight decline of 3.6% in Q3. The company is focusing on expanding its presence in weaker regions and establishing model stores in key urban areas [3]. Self-operated Online Business - Self-operated online revenue increased by 5.94% to 1.653 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, with Q3 growth of 14%. The company is optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency in e-commerce [4]. Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 21.9% to 850 million yuan [1][10]. - The report forecasts a 15% decline in total revenue for 2024, estimating it at 13.884 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.066 billion yuan, down 19% [10].