天目湖：公司季报点评：受天气影响，3Q24收入同比下滑26%

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 405 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 85 million yuan, down 28.8% year-on-year. The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 141 million yuan, down 26.4% year-on-year, primarily due to extreme weather conditions affecting business operations [6][8] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 52.8%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 21.1%, down 4.2 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the completion of the Hu-Su-Hu high-speed railway, which will enhance accessibility to its scenic area [7] - The launch of the "Animal + Amusement" integration project, the Tianmu Lake Animal Kingdom, is anticipated to drive a new wave of cultural tourism consumption, with an expected annual visitor count exceeding 4 million [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 557 million yuan, 650 million yuan, and 711 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -11.6%, +16.7%, and +9.4% respectively. Net profit projections for the same period are 115 million yuan, 144 million yuan, and 158 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -22.0%, +25.2%, and +10.3% respectively [8][9] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.42 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9] - The company is assigned a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30-35 for 2024, leading to a fair value range of 12.60-14.70 yuan per share [8]