SDBH(SH:600966) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-02 04:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on performance but is expected to benefit from the new "plastic limit order" policy as downstream demand recovers. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures are anticipated to enhance profitability from 2024 to 2026 [3][5]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.705 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.29% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders dropping by 92.85% to 18 million yuan [2][3]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to falling pulp prices and supply-demand pressures, with significant reductions in paper prices across various categories [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.705 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 6.29%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 18 million yuan, down 92.85% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 10 million yuan, down 95.78% year-on-year [2][3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q3 2024 were 9.79% and 0.39%, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 6.02 and 4.66 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The company’s operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024 was 139 million yuan, a decrease of 85.30% year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in the proportion of notes receivable [3][6]. Future Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 190 million yuan, 1.0 billion yuan, and 1.24 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 33X, 6X, and 5X [3][6]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 19.549 billion yuan in 2024 to 26.641 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.75% [6].