YILI(SH:600887) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-02 08:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 88.73 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15.87% to 10.87 billion yuan [2]. - The decline in revenue has narrowed, and profitability has improved on a quarter-on-quarter basis, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from policy support and economic recovery, leading to a potential improvement in terminal demand [5]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.04 billion yuan, down 6.66% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.53% year-on-year [2][3]. - The liquid milk segment saw a revenue of 20.64 billion yuan, down 10.3% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed compared to previous quarters [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2024 was 35.1%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved cost management and reduced promotional expenses [4]. - The company forecasts net profits for 2024-2026 to be 12.00 billion, 11.84 billion, and 12.77 billion yuan, respectively, with a projected growth of 15.1% in 2024 [5][8].