PDH(SH:600048) Haitong Securities·2024-11-02 08:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's gross margin has declined, impacting operational performance. For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 182.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.81 billion yuan, down 41.23% year-on-year. The gross margin stood at 15.92%, a decrease of 3.47 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [5][11] - The company remains the industry leader in sales scale, with a signed amount of 241.69 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 27.89%. The company continues to invest in core cities, with 99% of the new land acquisition costs in 2024 focused on 38 core cities [6] - A convertible bond issuance plan of up to 9.5 billion yuan is progressing smoothly, aimed at funding 15 real estate development projects in cities like Beijing and Shanghai, and supplementing working capital. This is expected to improve the company's debt structure and enhance investor confidence [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total assets of 1,373.94 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.38% from the end of 2023. The net assets attributable to shareholders increased by 1.11% to 200.75 billion yuan. The debt-to-asset ratio improved to 74.89%, down 1.66 percentage points from the end of 2023 [5][13] - The company’s net profit margin decreased to 4.27% in Q3 2024, down 2.63 percentage points year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) fell to 6.40% [11][13] Sales and Market Position - The company achieved a sales recovery rate of 91% with cash balance at the end of Q3 2024 amounting to 127.40 billion yuan. The total signed sales area was 13.50 million square meters, down 29.66% year-on-year, but it maintained the leading position in the industry [5][6] Future Outlook - The report projects an EPS of 1.03 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (PE) valuation range of 10-12 times, corresponding to a market value range of 122.8 billion to 147.4 billion yuan, and a reasonable value range of 10.26 to 12.31 yuan per share [7][15]