XIANMEN BANK(SH:601187) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-11-02 09:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen Bank [2][4]. Core Views - Xiamen Bank's revenue growth in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a significant improvement in net profit growth compared to the mid-year report. The bank is optimizing its asset-liability structure and maintaining stable asset quality indicators [2][3]. - The target price has been raised to 6.05 CNY, reflecting a 0.62 times price-to-book ratio for 2024, driven by favorable economic policies that are expected to alleviate risks and restore credit demand [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - As of Q3 2024, total assets grew by 3.2% year-to-date, surpassing 400 billion CNY, while the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains low among listed banks at 0.75% [3][6]. - The bank plans to distribute a mid-term dividend, with a payout ratio of 32.62% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from 2023 [3]. Revenue and Profitability - Q3 2024 revenue decreased by 5% year-on-year, with net interest income accounting for 77% of total revenue, which fell by 8.4% year-on-year. The net interest margin decline has narrowed to 20 basis points [3]. - The bank's net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 13.4% year-on-year, aided by a slight reversal in impairment provisions [3]. Asset Quality - The NPL ratio decreased by 1 basis point to 0.75% at the end of Q3 2024, but the attention ratio rose significantly by 65 basis points to 2.92%, indicating potential future uncertainties in asset quality [3][6]. - The provision coverage ratio decreased by 6 percentage points to 390%, suggesting a potential reduction in short-term risk resilience [3]. Future Outlook - The report adjusts the net profit growth forecast for 2024-2026 to -5.6%, 0.3%, and 1.8%, respectively, with corresponding book value per share (BVPS) estimates of 9.71 CNY, 10.30 CNY, and 10.91 CNY [3][10].