Baolong Automotive(603197) 财通证券·2024-11-02 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of RMB 5,026 million in Q3 2024, a YoY increase of 20.96%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.62% YoY to RMB 249 million [2] - Gross margin declined to 26.20% in the first three quarters of 2024, down 1.72 percentage points YoY, while R&D expenses increased to 8.31% of revenue, up 0.47 percentage points YoY [2] - The company has 11 R&D centers and 19 factories globally, with over 700 authorized patents and 1,321 R&D personnel as of Q3 2024 [3] - R&D expenses reached RMB 415 million in the first three quarters of 2024, accounting for 8.25% of revenue, a 33.45% YoY increase [3] - The company has been recognized by Li Auto for its contributions to the production of 1 million vehicles, providing customized products such as air springs, air tanks, TPMS, and wheel speed sensors [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 7,513 million in 2024E to RMB 11,229 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23.01% [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 412 million in 2024E to RMB 772 million in 2026E [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from RMB 1.94 in 2024E to RMB 3.64 in 2026E, with a corresponding PE ratio decline from 19.70x to 10.52x [4] - ROE is expected to improve from 12.28% in 2024E to 16.81% in 2026E [4] Operational Highlights - The company's gross margin is projected to stabilize at around 27.5% from 2025E onwards [6] - Operating margin is expected to increase from 7.0% in 2024E to 8.7% in 2026E [6] - Asset turnover efficiency is improving, with total asset turnover days decreasing from 425 days in 2024E to 371 days in 2026E [6] - ROIC is forecasted to rise from 7.3% in 2024E to 9.7% in 2026E [6]