Peacebird(603877) 国盛证券·2024-11-02 12:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting its status as a leading domestic fashion brand group despite short-term performance fluctuations [5][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q1 to Q3 2024 was 45.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, with a net profit of 1.1 billion yuan, down 49% year-on-year. The adjusted net profit showed a loss of 0.1 billion yuan, primarily due to non-recurring gains from government subsidies [1][2]. - The report highlights that the retail sector is under pressure, impacting short-term performance, but structural optimization is expected to enhance efficiency in the long run [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 14.0 billion yuan, a decline of 14% year-on-year, with a net loss of 0.6 billion yuan. The gross margin remained stable at 52.1%, while the net margin fell to -4.6% [2]. - The company's revenue breakdown for Q1 to Q3 2024 shows declines across various brands, with PB women's wear down 12%, men's wear down 7%, and other brands experiencing significant drops [2][3]. Channel Performance - Online sales for Q1 to Q3 2024 decreased by 10% to 12.0 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 42.0%. Offline direct sales fell by 19% to 19.0 billion yuan, maintaining a higher gross margin of 70.8% [3]. - The company is adjusting its channel structure, focusing on quality improvement, with a reduction in the number of direct and franchise stores [3]. Inventory and Cash Flow Management - The company has effectively managed inventory, with a year-on-year decrease in inventory of 7.9% to 17.9 billion yuan and a reduction in inventory turnover days by 23.4 days to 217.3 days [4]. - Operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 0.9 billion yuan for Q1 to Q3 2024, indicating a need for improvement in cash flow management [4]. Future Outlook - The company has announced organizational restructuring, establishing independent brand divisions for children's wear and other lines, aiming for improved operational efficiency [4]. - The long-term strategic goals remain clear, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 indicating a gradual recovery in net profit [5][6].