山西汾酒：2024年三季报点评：收入略超预期，实际动销较优

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 31.358 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 11.350 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 8.611 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year growth, which slightly exceeded market expectations [2]. - The company has shown resilience in maintaining its market strategy and adjusting its product mix, with a notable performance in high-end and mid-range liquor sales [2][3]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue in Q3 grew by 11.4% year-on-year, despite a slowdown compared to Q2, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment [2]. - Sales revenue from high-end liquor and other categories reached 6.188 billion yuan and 2.405 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.73% and 25.62% [2]. - The company’s sales in both domestic and external markets showed positive growth, with domestic sales increasing by 12.12% and external sales by 10.95% in Q3 [2]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 74.29%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.75 percentage points, attributed to changes in product mix [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 stood at 34.14%, reflecting a stable profitability despite some pressures [3]. - Cash flow from operating activities showed significant improvement, with a net cash flow of 3.505 billion yuan, up 67.22% year-on-year, indicating strong collection from downstream channels [3]. Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted downwards to 12.55 billion, 14.28 billion, and 16.15 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 4.1%, 8.0%, and 11.6% from previous estimates [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 20, 17, and 15 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation in the context of its growth potential [4].