FLYCO(603868) 国泰君安·2024-11-02 13:41Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Cautious Accumulate" rating to the company, down from a previous "Accumulate" rating [5][17]. Core Views - The company's Q3 performance is under pressure, but the national subsidy for trade-in programs is expected to boost sales in Q4 2024 [2][17]. - The overall shaving business is facing short-term challenges, and sales expenses are rising quickly, leading to a decline in gross profit margin [3][17]. Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 3.321 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.85%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 466 million yuan, down 43.82% [11]. - Q3 2024 revenue was 1.002 billion yuan, a decline of 24.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of 149 million yuan, down 31.84% [11][12]. Revenue Analysis - The shaving product revenue is expected to decline by 15% year-on-year in Q3, with the main brand experiencing a 30% drop due to price reductions and weak demand [12][13]. - The high-speed hair dryer segment is projected to contribute approximately 120 to 150 million yuan in revenue, with a slight decline in overall hair dryer revenue due to competitive pricing strategies [13]. Profitability Insights - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 56%, a decrease of 1.71 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 13.99%, down 6.72 percentage points [14]. - The sales expense ratio is at a historical high, expected to remain above 35% for the year, impacting the efficiency of expense conversion [15][17]. Cash Flow and Financial Position - As of Q3 2024, the company had cash and cash equivalents plus trading financial assets totaling 1.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.65% [16]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for Q3 2024 was 19 million yuan, a significant decline of 94.51% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced sales collections [16]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2024-2026 are revised to 1.44, 1.77, and 1.93 yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of 9%, 1%, and 4% respectively [3][17].