LONGSHINE(300682) 国泰君安·2024-11-02 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to 15.37 CNY, down by 1.80 CNY [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in performance, particularly in its grid business, with a notable reduction in losses from the "New Electric Path" business. The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 2.699 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 160 million CNY, a decline of 21.83% [2][3]. - The energy digitalization business is experiencing robust growth, with a projected revenue increase of approximately 10% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2024. The company is focusing on new power system construction and has developed various solutions in energy big data, benefiting from the demand for digital transformation in the grid sector [3][13]. - The energy internet business is also expanding rapidly, with a year-on-year revenue growth of about 30% in the first three quarters. The "New Electric Path" charging platform has seen significant development, with over 1.4 million charging devices and more than 15 million registered users by the end of September 2024 [3][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 5.201 billion CNY in 2024, 5.986 billion CNY in 2025, and 6.892 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 584 million CNY, 698 million CNY, and 814 million CNY respectively. The EPS is projected to be 0.54 CNY, 0.64 CNY, and 0.75 CNY for the same years [14][16]. - The energy digitalization segment is anticipated to maintain a revenue growth rate of 10% in 2024, with a stable gross margin of around 40% [13][14]. - The energy internet segment is expected to grow at a rate of 30% in 2024, with a gross margin also projected to remain at 40% [13][14]. 2. Financial Summary - The company reported a total revenue of 4.727 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 5.201 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 10.03% [15]. - The gross margin for the overall business is expected to be around 39.54% in 2024, with specific segments like energy digitalization and energy internet maintaining margins of 40% [15][18]. 3. Valuation Methodology - The report employs both PE and PS valuation methods, with a target market value of 166.81 billion CNY based on a PE ratio of 28.56 for comparable companies in the energy digitalization sector [18][20]. - The PS valuation method suggests a market value of 235.78 billion CNY, reflecting the rapid growth in the energy internet business [20][21].