HLGF(600346) 国海证券·2024-11-02 15:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Hengli Petrochemical (600346) [1] Core Views - Hengli Petrochemical's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by weak macro demand and fluctuating crude oil prices, leading to a year-on-year decline in net profit [4][5] - The company's new materials projects are gradually being put into production, which is expected to drive future growth [7] - Hengli Petrochemical completed its 2023 cash dividend distribution, emphasizing shareholder returns [8] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Hengli Petrochemical reported revenue of RMB 65.23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 59.0% to RMB 1.09 billion [4] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 was 7.78%, down 5.78 percentage points year-on-year [4] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of RMB 177.86 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, but net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 10.5% to RMB 5.10 billion [4] Product Performance - In Q3 2024, the refining products segment achieved revenue of RMB 33.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with sales volume increasing by 10% to 5.85 million tons [3] - The PTA segment reported revenue of RMB 16.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17%, with sales volume down 14% to 3.35 million tons [3] - The new materials segment achieved revenue of RMB 10.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with sales volume up 17% to 1.26 million tons [3] Future Outlook - The 1.6 million tons/year high-performance resin and new materials project is expected to be fully operational in the second half of 2024, contributing to the company's growth [7] - The company's Suzhou Fenhu base has 12 functional film production lines in operation, with another 12 lines and a lithium battery separator project under construction, expected to be completed by the first half of 2025 [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of RMB 255.7 billion, RMB 267.7 billion, and RMB 274.9 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 7.015 billion, RMB 9.048 billion, and RMB 10.623 billion [8][9] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to be 14x, 11x, and 9x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The P/B ratio is expected to be 1.53x, 1.43x, and 1.33x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9] - The P/S ratio is forecasted to be 0.38x, 0.36x, and 0.35x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [9]