YILI(SH:600887) Guohai Securities·2024-11-02 16:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in revenue and profit performance in Q3 2024, with a notable recovery in operational metrics compared to Q2 2024 [2][6] - The company is expected to benefit from a seasonal increase in liquid milk sales in Q4, particularly due to the timing of the Spring Festival, which is anticipated to enhance revenue growth [8] - The company has effectively managed its supply chain and inventory, leading to improved product freshness and pricing stability [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 887.3 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 8.61%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 108.7 billion, an increase of 15.9% [2] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 290.4 billion, down 6.66% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 8.5% to 33.37 billion [2] - The gross profit margin improved to 34.85%, up 2.48 percentage points year-on-year, driven by lower raw material costs and better pricing strategies [5][6] Operational Insights - The company has adjusted its product freshness and inventory management, which has led to a significant reduction in revenue decline for liquid milk products in Q3 [4][6] - The company’s sales, management, and financial expense ratios have shown improvements, contributing to a better gross profit margin [5] Future Outlook - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 1190.06 billion, 1233.17 billion, and 1283.85 billion respectively, with expected year-on-year changes of -6%, +4%, and +4% [8][9] - The net profit forecasts for the same period are 117.00 billion, 110.99 billion, and 118.11 billion, reflecting a growth of 12%, a decline of 5%, and a growth of 6% respectively [8][9]