山西汾酒：2024年三季报点评：业绩稳增，韧性充分

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][8] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue growth, achieving a total revenue of 31.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.25%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year, indicating robust performance despite external macroeconomic pressures [1][2][5] - The company ranks among the top three in revenue among listed liquor companies, showcasing its resilience in a challenging market environment. The third quarter saw a revenue increase of 11.35% year-on-year, with net profit growth of 10.36% [2][5] - The company has successfully expanded its dealer network, increasing the number of dealers to 4,368, which is a 172 dealer increase from the previous quarter, indicating effective channel expansion [2][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported total revenue of 31.36 billion yuan, a 17.25% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 11.35 billion yuan, up 20.34% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 8.61 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.35% year-on-year growth, while net profit was 2.94 billion yuan, a 10.36% increase [1][2][5] - The company's cash flow quality remains strong, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.51 billion yuan, a significant increase of 67.22% year-on-year, attributed to higher sales receipts [5][6] Market Position - The company has solidified its position in the market, ranking among the top three liquor companies in terms of revenue. It has maintained a leading growth rate among major liquor enterprises, even in a challenging consumption environment [2][5] - The company has seen a slight slowdown in revenue growth from external markets, with Q3 revenue from outside Shanxi province increasing by 10.95% year-on-year, down from 21.78% in Q2 [2][5] Product and Regional Performance - The company’s product mix has shifted, with mid-to-high-end liquor categories generating revenue of 6.19 billion yuan, up 6.73% year-on-year, while other liquor categories saw a 25.62% increase to 2.41 billion yuan [2][5] - Revenue from Shanxi province reached 3.51 billion yuan, a 12.12% increase year-on-year, while revenue from outside the province was 5.09 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.95% increase [2][5] Profitability and Valuation - The company's net profit margin decreased slightly to 34.11%, and gross margin to 74.29%, attributed to product mix adjustments. However, the overall profitability remains strong [2][5] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 10.18 yuan for 2024, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21 times [5][6]