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绝味食品:收入端持续承压,盈利能力优化

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the company [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.01 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 440 million yuan, an increase of 12.5% [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.67 billion yuan, down 13.3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 140 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [1]. - The company is adjusting its store count, having reduced 981 stores in the first half of 2024, with expectations of continued adjustments in Q3 [2]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.6%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to improved raw material costs [3]. - The company plans to repurchase shares worth 200-300 million yuan at a price not exceeding 35 yuan per share, reflecting confidence in its future development [3]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from marinated food sales was 4.22 billion yuan, down 9.4%, while franchise management revenue was 50 million yuan, down 13.9% [2]. - The revenue from various product categories showed significant variation, with poultry products at 2.97 billion yuan (down 13.8%), while other products like processed vegetables and packaged products saw different growth rates [2]. - The company expects a net profit of 540 million yuan in 2024, with projections of 650 million yuan and 740 million yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3]. Financial Forecast - The forecast for revenue from marinated food sales is expected to decline by 11% in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.87 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.20 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 17, and 15 [3][4].