海泰新光：业绩短期承压，大客户去库尾声，拐点将至

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company, indicating a potential recovery in revenue growth as the inventory reduction by major US customers nears its end [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 319 million (yoy -15 30%), with net profit attributable to the parent company at RMB 97 40 million (yoy -17 60%) [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 was RMB 98 25 million (yoy -9 39%), showing a narrowing decline compared to previous quarters, suggesting the inventory reduction cycle is nearing its end [1] - The company's gross profit margin in Q3 2024 improved to 69 44% (yoy +5pp), driven by higher-margin products [1] - The company's second growth driver, the whole machine business, continued to grow significantly in Q3 2024, providing new momentum for future growth [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 436 million (yoy -7 4%), with a recovery expected in 2025E and 2026E to RMB 555 million (yoy +27 3%) and RMB 684 million (yoy +23 3%) respectively [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to grow from RMB 155 million in 2024E to RMB 254 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 25 7% [2] - Gross profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 63 9% from 2024E to 2026E [2] - ROE is projected to improve from 11 7% in 2024E to 15 8% in 2026E, reflecting better profitability and efficiency [2] Business Outlook - The company's revenue growth is expected to recover as the inventory reduction by major US customers concludes, with shipments expected to gradually increase [1] - The whole machine business is anticipated to become a significant growth driver, contributing to the company's future revenue expansion [1] - The company's profitability is expected to remain stable, with potential for improvement as revenue scales up and expenses are diluted [1] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decline from 29 84x in 2024E to 18 23x in 2026E, reflecting expected earnings growth [2] - The P/B ratio is forecasted to decrease from 3 48x in 2024E to 2 88x in 2026E, indicating potential undervaluation as the company's book value grows [2]