极米科技2024Q3业绩点评：静待底部复苏

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a recovery phase after a bottoming out, with a focus on improving sales and profitability in the second half of 2024 [1] - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 680 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 14.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -40 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 577.2% [1] - The company is actively responding to the differentiated consumption trends in the industry and is expected to see demand recovery in Q4 due to product structure adjustments and government subsidies [1] Revenue Analysis - Domestic sales are projected to generate 400 million yuan in Q3, with a double-digit year-on-year decline [1] - International sales are expected to reach 200 million yuan in Q3, remaining stable or slightly increasing, with growth anticipated in North America, Europe, and Japan [1] - The company has launched new products at the Berlin IFA exhibition, which is expected to drive growth in Q4 [1] Profit Analysis - The gross margin for Q3 2024 is expected to decline by 1.4 percentage points year-on-year and 2.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to inventory clearance and delays in revenue recognition [1] - The net profit margin for Q3 2024 is projected to decrease by 5.7 percentage points year-on-year and 5.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, with increases in sales, management, and R&D expenses [1] Investment Recommendations - The company is maintaining its leading market share in domestic smart projection sales, with international sales channels in Europe, the US, and Japan being key growth drivers [1] - The automotive sector is expected to contribute to new growth opportunities, with recent announcements of partnerships for smart cockpit and intelligent lighting projects [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 3.41 billion, 3.72 billion, and 4.08 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -4%, +9%, and +10% [2][6]